West Mesa:Thinking about Demographics

West Mesa has a choice- proactively foster living experiences for specific demographics, or continue to be chosen by absentee landlords and people looking for a cheap place to stay while watching the housing stock and tax base steadily decline.

Over the next ten years, Housing preferences are predicted to shift dramatically.[1] West Mesa can take advantage of this shift- away from suburban lifestyle towards centrally located living- by providing specific living experiences for Generation "Y" ( Millenials), and their parents, Baby Boomer Retirees.

Millenials
Why?
West Mesa possesses an advantageous proximity.
It's convenient enough that it is often blurred with "Tempe". Many understandably don't recognize the existing boundaries between Mesa/Tempe/Chandler. Residents of the Villagio on Rio Salado Dr live in a trendy upscale development that also happens to be extremely convenient ( adjacent to Loop 101 and .5 miles from Tempe Marketplace). Do they understand that they live literally across the street from the city of Mesa?

The Mesa/Tempe border will continue to be a fascinating indicator as development continues East along the Light Rail Line into Mesa. Already, there is a Housing complex, Apache Trails ASL, under construction directly on the Tempe/Mesa border, at 2430 E Apache Blvd. The sight was selected because of "easy drive access to highways /easy walk access to Light Rail line". Another 100 feet east, and the development has arrived in Mesa.

Twelve city blocks West, development for Generation Y is thriving, and it's essentially the same neighborhood. The success of the Grigio Metro ( at right) isn't dependent upon immediate proximity to shops and restaurants -an Auto Parts store and a Check cashing outlet are the closest retail. Rather, it is built upon proximity to Light Rail.

Most Millenials don't have school aged children
This is important, as school systems continue to be a major reason that young families choose the isolation of suburbia.

Many Millenials are educated
While a college education doesn't make one a better person, it can definitely help with one's quality of life . Better income means better stability, means better neighborhoods. Millenials also possess a desire to live in "Urban" areas, and see value within becoming "Urban Pioneers"- that is, becoming part of a community and making things better. Our wisest move is to befriend and empower them as a whole, and allow them to share the revitalization burden with us.


Baby Boomer retirees.
Why?
Again, proximity is key. West Mesa is close to the airport and major freeways, yet much of it is exempt from the hustle & bustle of rush hour and retail shopping. We're still a bedroom community, with many interior neighborhoods that remain astonishingly quiet and gentile.

Why Baby Boomers?
The unfortunate facts are that seniors have collectively lost almost half of their retirement wealth.[2] Meanwhile there is an abundance of essential budget shopping here in Mesa. Post housing collapse, the plain facts are that retirees will increasingly be shopping at WalMart, and not Nordstroms. Discount stores, basic grocers, and thrift stores in close proximity will prove to be valuable resources for them.

Seniors make good neighbors
One of the factors that significantly decreases quality of life in an urban environment is noise. Seniors predictably and endearingly possess a gentler and more quiet approach to daily life.

Seniors are gentle on infrastructure
Mesa has serious budget problems that affect everything- including streets and infrastructure. We, as a community, need a break.
Seniors are exempt from the rigors of daily commuting. They often take public transportation, walk, or use motorized wheelchairs instead of driving. That means less pollution- both noise pollution and air pollution- and less wear and tear on our roads. Over time, this has a huge effect on a neighborhood.

Seniors are stable
One of the most harmful things to the business model of any rental community is "turnover". Instability kills profitability and makes it less likely that owners of rental communities have the funds to re-invest or maintain those properties.

Seniors of all income levels are more likely to be supported by Social security, social programs, individual retirement plans, and families. Some of the most stable communities in Mesa's older neighborhoods are for Senior living.

What about everyone Else?
It's accepted that there will continue to be a considerable portion of the population that will desire to live in the suburbs-isolated from public transportation and housing density /diversity, but there will be an increasingly large sector of the population that will want and need to live in a more urban scenario.

Making a place for them is an investment in our future. Planning, Design, and Marketing are key.

[1] http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2010/1011.doherty-leinberger.html

[2] http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-06-04-foreclose-mortgage-seniors_N.htm#chart

Grigio Metro:
http://www.grigiometro.com

Apache Trails ASL:
http://www.apacheasltrails.com/main.html

Why Design Matters

I often complain that here in Good Ol' Mesa, design is still seen as something "extra". The idea that things have to look a specific way is just a little too superficial for some folks here.

But the saying goes "If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice". This is especially true when speaking about Design. Design, as I find my self asserting over and over, is Communication.

"Design is Communication"

Municipalities and Corporations pay for design because it has the ability to influence perceptions and control spending behaviors. Ultimately, business invests in design because it affects the bottom line.
...and even a lack of design sends a specific message.

These two building facades are good examples.

This Design (above) communicates to the people of West Mesa : " Stay Out. We don't want you- we don't trust you". More importantly, a street made of imposing building facades like this creates a neighborhood where people aren't attracted to want to live, shop, or do business. The design seems to emphasize that "We don't feel safe or comfortable here- and neither should you", and erodes something already in short supply here- community pride.

Both of these structures are located on N Country Club Drive, no more than a block apart from one another, and represent major health care organizations in the Valley.

This Design communicates that "We are part of your Community", and that "something good can happen here". It contributes to a healthy atmosphere for our neighborhood, and is an asset to the surrounding businesses. A street full of facades like this could permanently change the dynamics of a neighborhood for obvious reasons.

Instead of being pushed out to the street with "NO" signs, the Bus Stop has been incorporated into the design without any compromise to the security or integrity of the facility.








The parking lot and second facility were recently completed, as seen from 10th Street. Along with landscaping and lighting, the complex has a cohesive and inviting feel that helps to establish a healthy tone for the neighborhood.

While the people of West Mesa are happy to have large organizations invest in our community this way, this comparison highlights the real effects that translate beyond just dollar signs.

Companies that make large capital investments here have a choice: they can exercise leadership within the business climate here, or they can exploit the location for it's convenient proximity while ignoring the effects of their decisions on us and our neighborhoods.

The first design funnels tax revenue into the municipal coffers, while leaving us as residents, neighbors, and small business owners on our own to worry about how we will attract quality neighbors, rental tenants, and clients/customers to our community.

The second design enhances our neighborhood, and makes it more likely that individuals with something to offer will want to live in and invest within our neighborhood. It also contributes to a sense of community pride.

We need more of the latter. We, as resident tax payers and homeowners have the right to a say in how zoning and design are interpreted within our neighborhood. We have the right to demand the best for our neighborhoods, and that our city leaders exercise vision when it comes to how the community will continue to develop and adjust to an overall climate of uncertainty.

Stand up for your neighborhood. Make your voice heard.

2011 Mesa Historic Home Tour

So this year I finally attended the Historic Home Tour in Mesa. Included this year were some more funky Mid century properties from the Post War "Fraser Fields" neighborhood. As usual, I took the opportunity to focus on the forgotten period architectural details as those seem to be what's disappearing the fastest.

Here's a Photo set on flickr!

What Happens in Vegas....is destined to happen here, too.

This article in the Las Vegas Sun Times explains how "....developers filled the valley and made piles of money with suburban tract homes that carry little appeal for the next generation of housing consumers, according to an emerging body of survey data of the so-called Millennials or Generation Y."

With nearly identical demographics, population growth patterns, and real estate markets- are Las Vegas and the Phoenix/Mesa area so dissimilar? I don't think so.
Read more:
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2011/jan/25/millennials-want-what-not-there/

West Mesa: Where do we fit in?

Even more information that illustrates why West Mesa is poised for revitalization.
....and indicators that once again point to the increasing importance of centrally located housing, close to universities and public transportation infrastructure.

Watch the full episode. See more Need To Know.

West Mesa- what's it good for?

Walkable. Urban. Transit oriented.
What exactly does this mean?

The "coming of age" of America's two largest generation's will dramatically change how and where people live. Before World War II, most Americans lived in neighborhoods close to city centers and shopped downtown.

Just as the Baby Boomer nuclear family redefined the American lifestyle as they moved massively away from urban neighborhoods to suburban communities after WWII, a similar shift is predicted to occur once again- but in reverse and on a much larger scale.

American housing appetites are destined to transform on a scale never seen before within the next ten years. Walkable, Urban, and Transit oriented describe the future of communities in this country. A defining change is the fact that “by 2020, the combination of younger people driving less and boomers retiring will cut mileage driven in the U.S. by half.“

In 1946, the returning war veterans and their spouses comprised 20% of the population. In 2010, the oldest Baby Boomers reached formal retirement age of 65, and the youngest of Echo Boomer's began graduating from college. Together, these two groups fully make up one half of the current US population. The implications are huge.


What's significant isn't just the precise age bracketing of these two demographics- but their values and living/buying choices. While newly aged seniors will inevitably want to downsize their suburban homes for more manageable residences, they may choose suburban condominiums. Some will even choose more urban locations for convenience to transit hubs, essential shopping, and medical providers during retirement. Aging in place will become more common.





But their children are different.
According to market studies, 77% of generation Y plan to live in urban cores. [1]. That means that a majority of Generation Y will want to live close to things like Metro Light Rail, and cultural districts like Downtown Phoenix, Arcadia, Tempe's Mill Avenue, and potentially even Downtown Mesa.

Generation Y is increasingly less car friendly, and dramatically less hungry for the suburban lifestyle than previous generations. Some of this based upon pragmatic factors- like the present economy, but overwhelmingly is value based- something that is likely to solidify over time when bolstered by the inevitability of increasing fuel prices, a protracted economic recovery, and permanent change within the domestic employment landscape.

Even without these massive demographic shifts, "Demand for standard-issue suburban housing is going down, not up, a trend that was apparent even before the crash."[2]

Downtown Mesa, you ask incredulously? Yes, Mesa.
Stay tuned and keep an open mind.


[1].http://www.cooltownstudios.com/2010/06/14/emerging-generations-who-needs-a-car

[2].http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2010/1011.doherty-leinberger.html


"The baby boom generation, defined as those born between 1946 and 1964, remains the largest demographic bloc in the United States. At approximately 77 million Americans, they are fully one-quarter of the population."[1]

Local Recognition

Mesa's Evergreen Historic district was recently recognized in Phoenix magazine, as one of the Phoenix metropolitan area's "Top 21 Neighborhoods".



It's no surprise to people in the Duke Manor neighborhood, as we have been enjoying the wide streets, magnificent trees, and great period architecture of this adjacent neighborhood for walking, jogging, or a just nice way to enter our neighborhood from University Dr.






This photo below was taken about two blocks away from Duke Manor in the 700 block of N Robson.











The article reads:
"The name says it all. In a valley filled with neighborhoods whose chracter is stagnant and hard to define, Mesa'a evergreen district remains fresh and lively...
Today, this family-friendly neighborhood boasts expanded bungalow-style homes on large lots with huge setbacks fronted by huge trees. It begs for a walkabout- driving feels like a crime here."

It's a great acknowledgment for a gem of a neighborhood, blessed with distinct Phoenix rareties- historical charm and lush landscaping. It's also located close the Valley Metro Light Rail path that will continue through Downtown Mesa in the next few years.
Keep your eye on this area!!