Walkable. Urban. Transit oriented.What exactly does this mean?
The "coming of age" of America's two largest generation's will dramatically change how and where people live. Before World War II, most Americans lived in neighborhoods close to city centers and shopped downtown.
Just as the Baby Boomer nuclear family redefined the American lifestyle as they moved massively away from urban neighborhoods to suburban communities after WWII, a similar shift is predicted to occur once again- but in reverse and on a much larger scale.
American housing appetites are destined to transform on a scale never seen before within the next ten years. Walkable, Urban, and Transit oriented describe the future of communities in this country. A defining change is the fact that “by 2020, the combination of younger people driving less and boomers retiring will cut mileage driven in the U.S. by half.“
In 1946, the returning war veterans and their spouses comprised 20% of the population. In 2010, the oldest Baby Boomers reached formal retirement age of 65, and the youngest of Echo Boomer's began graduating from college. Together, these two groups fully make up one half of the current US population. The implications are huge.
What's significant isn't just the precise age bracketing of these two demographics- but their values and living/buying choices. While newly aged seniors will inevitably want to downsize their suburban homes for more manageable residences, they may choose suburban condominiums. Some will even choose more urban locations for convenience to transit hubs, essential shopping, and medical providers during retirement. Aging in place will become more common.
But their children are different.According to market studies, 77% of generation Y plan to live in urban cores. [1]. That means that a majority of Generation Y will want to live close to things like Metro Light Rail, and cultural districts like Downtown Phoenix, Arcadia, Tempe's Mill Avenue, and potentially even Downtown Mesa.
Generation Y is increasingly less car friendly, and dramatically less hungry for the suburban lifestyle than previous generations. Some of this based upon pragmatic factors- like the present economy, but overwhelmingly is value based- something that is likely to solidify over time when bolstered by the inevitability of increasing fuel prices, a protracted economic recovery, and permanent change within the domestic employment landscape.
Even without these massive demographic shifts, "Demand for standard-issue suburban housing is going down, not up, a trend that was apparent even before the crash."[2]
Downtown Mesa, you ask incredulously? Yes, Mesa.
Stay tuned and keep an open mind.
[1].http://www.cooltownstudios.com/2010/06/14/emerging-generations-who-needs-a-car
[2].http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2010/1011.doherty-leinberger.html
"The baby boom generation, defined as those born between 1946 and 1964, remains the largest demographic bloc in the United States. At approximately 77 million Americans, they are fully one-quarter of the population."[1]
No comments:
Post a Comment